Watch International

The government of the Islamic Republic of Iran has faced challenging times before, but in recent months, Tehran has been confronted with one crisis after another. The threats of severe international sanctions over its nuclear program are mounting, just as domestic strife undermines the legitimacy of the regime. With its plate so full, why did Iran suddenly decide to taunt Iraq — a country with which it fought an eight-year war — by provocatively raising the Iranian flag on an Iraqi-controlled oil field? The answer may point to even more trouble on the horizon for Iran’s leaders.

The startling news came on Friday, when Baghdad announced that Iranian forces had crossed into Iraq, “invaded” an oil field near Basra, and raised the Iranian flag. The announcement sparked ominous memories of the devastating war the two countries fought in the 1980s — in which 1 million people died — while sending oil prices higher on international commodities markets and throwing diplomats and military men into feverish action. As Iraqi forces started massing near the border with Iran, Baghdad mustered its national security council and summoned the Iranian ambassador.

Twenty-four hours after the initial report, Iran was still issuing denials. On the Iraqi side of the border, meanwhile, Gen. Zafer Nazmi, head of the border police in Basra, reported that the Iranians were fortifying their hold of well No. 4 in the Fauqa field, claiming the Iranians had “positioned tanks around the well and dug trenches.”

Arab observers watched the incident nervously, fearing the start of yet another major war. “The Iranian takeover of an oil well in Iraq [shows] how one thing could lead to another,” warned an editorial in the Arab News, explaining that “cases such as these sometimes suddenly snowball.”

The incident seemed supremely puzzling, particularly because Iran and Iraq have maintained very good relations since the fall of Saddam Hussein, with frequent visits by their leaders to each other’s capitals.

Making matters more confusing, Iranian officials seemed to waiver between rejecting the veracity of the report, and declaring that their troops had simply positioned themselves in territory rightfully belonging to Tehran. Iran’s ambassador in Baghdad, Hassan Kazemi Qomi, claimed that news about an Iranian incursion and occupation of an Iraqi oil well “are lies.”

A Foreign Ministry spokesman in Tehran, Ramin Mehmanparast, also rejected the reports as an attempt by outsiders to foment discord between the two neighbors. But, he added, the government was investigating the situation.

The oilfield in question remains part of a territorial dispute between the two countries, and Tehran’s official line eventually settled on denying its troops had taken over an Iraqi well, since the well in fact belongs to Iran.

By Monday, the situation appeared to have calmed. Iraq said the Iranians had withdrawn from the oil field, although there were some reports that troops still stood inside what Iraq regards as its border.

What remained most unclear, though, was why this incident happened at all.

It would be easy to dismiss it by noting that the territorial dispute and unclear border have frequently led to similar incidents. But this episode was not like all others. In this case, the small group of troops came backed by tanks, and provocatively raised the Iranian flag — far from a common occurrence.

Another theory is that Iran is unhappy about Iraq’s effort to boost its oil production. The incident took place just after Iraq’s successful auctions of drilling rights to foreign firms.

It is also possible that Tehran wanted to warn the West about the risks of taking on the Islamic Republic. It is widely believed that a raid by Israel or the U.S. against Iran’s nuclear installations would lead to, among other reactions, disruptions of oil supplies in the Persian Gulf and incursions by Iran into Iraqi territory. Tehran may have wanted to show Washington what might happen to oil prices in such a scenario. By that count, the raid was not hugely successful, since prices rose, but not spectacularly.

But the most plausible explanation of last weekend’s events is that they reveal an erosion of control by the central government in Tehran. The raid simply went against the larger strategic interests of the government. And the government’s apparent confusion about what was taking place seems to support this view. The raid appears to have been the act of rogue forces in the military, asserting their ability to take forceful action.

Provoking Iraq goes against Tehran’s strategic interests. A new war with Iraq is the last thing Iran needs today, and strong relations between Tehran and Baghdad go a long way to supporting Iran’s goal of becoming the undisputed leader of the Shiite world and the emerging leader of the larger Muslim Umma, or community.

Memories of the war fought between Iraq and Iran during the 1980s color the relationship between the two neighbors. The war decimated a generation on both sides, sowing the seeds of distrust between countries that have reason to be rivals, but also cause to become allies. Both have led major empires, and as such have competed for regional dominance over the centuries. But as home to the world’s largest Shiite populations, they are natural allies as defenders of a minority that has been oppressed by its Sunni brethren for many centuries.

At a time when Iran’s rulers face so many challenges, the raid into the Iraqi oil field shows the emergence of yet another potential weakness within the regime: its inability to control the actions of its armed forces.